[I heard a report on World Have Your Say on BBC News on my way to work this morning. I heard a segment from John Sweeney about his visit to North Korea. He calls the North Korean government the worst in the world. Basically he talked for quite some time trying to come up with superlatives to describe how frighteningly irresponsible the government and how desparately out of touch and impoverished the citizens are. He attempted to show the rediculous nature of opulent wealth vs. extreme poverty. Kissing the British soil when he got home was just one of the stretches of imagination he used to share just how bad the things he discovered on his trip were. I will look to see if I can get a transcript of that. I doubt it. But I will post here this article that was interesting. In America we are caught up by silly politics that makes one gasp at the irresponsibility, but we are far from as bad as it gets. John Sweeney's account reminded me a bit of a Marlow narrative from Conrad's Heart of Darkness]
How potent are North Korea's threats?
2 April 2013 BBC News
Since the latest UN sanctions, North Korea has unleashed a
salvo of threats against the US and South Korea, even vowing to restart
operations at its main nuclear complex. The BBC examines how much of a threat
North Korea really poses to the US and its Asian neighbours.
North Korea has frequently employed bellicose rhetoric towards its perceived
aggressors.
The 1994 threat by a North Korean negotiator to turn Seoul into "a sea of
fire" prompted South Koreans to stock up on essentials in panic.
"When you look at occasions where something really did
happen, such as the artillery attack on a South Korean island in 2010, you see
there were very clear warnings” Professor John Delury, Yonsei university
After US President George W Bush labelled it part of the
"axis of evil" in 2002, Pyongyang said it would "mercilessly wipe out the
aggressors".
Last June the army warned that artillery was aimed at seven South Korean
media groups and threatened a "merciless sacred war".
There is also a pattern of escalating threats whenever South Korea gets a new
leader.
While many observers dismiss the rhetoric as bluster, others warn of "the
tyranny of low expectations" when it comes to understanding North Korea, because
there have been a number of serious regional confrontations.
North Korea expert Aidan Foster-Carter says the rhetoric from
the North is all too familiar.
"If you follow North Korean media you constantly see bellicose language
directed against the US and South Korea and occasionally Japan is thrown in
there, and it's hard to know what to take seriously. But then when you look at
occasions where something really did happen, such as the artillery attack on a
South Korean island in 2010, you see there were very clear warnings," Professor
John Delury at South Korea's Yonsei university told the BBC.
The North consistently warned that military exercises being conducted in the
area would spark a retaliation.
Mr Delury argues that misreading Pyongyang's intentions and misunderstanding
its capabilities has kept the US and South Korea
stuck in a North Korean
quagmire.
The latest warning of a pre-emptive nuclear attack was in response to joint
military exercises between South Korea and the US rather than sanctions per
se.
"Any time a nation threatens pre-emptive nuclear war, there is cause for
concern. North Korea is no exception, with its recent shift in rhetoric from
accusing the US of imagining a North Korean ballistic missile threat, to vowing
to use its ballistic missile capabilities to strike the continental US," says
Andrea Berger, from the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Former leader Kim Jong-il in
friendlier times between the US and North Korea
But many experts believe these threats come from the North's desire for a
peace treaty with the US.
"It seems to believe that it will not be taken seriously until it can enter
talks on this issue with sizeable military strength. This is in line with
Pyongyang's historic military-first policy," Ms Berger says.
The US is often centre-stage. "There are cases where the threats are geared
towards getting on the radar particularly of the White House, which tries to
ignore North Korea as a matter of policy. Pyongyang's message is - you cannot
break us, we will not go away, you have to deal with us," Mr Delury said.
The latest series of threats are being seen as "bluff" because the North's
leaders
know a nuclear attack would be suicidal and
impractical, given the North's rudimentary missile programme.
And many point out that it is unclear exactly which pacts North Korea has
abandoned as some were never properly implemented. And the North has also
threatened to scrap the
armistice agreement
before this - there are several
well documented attempts.
But the North may yet respond to sanctions by provoking a conventional forces
border clash with South Korea, either on land or sea, as it has done before.
It has now said it will restart operations at its main nuclear facility at
Yongbyon - this could open up a new source of plutonium for the North's weapons
programme.
When it comes to enriching uranium, it is unclear how many secret plants
already exist and there is still no clear evidence to indicate whether the
North's latest nuclear test was uranium-based. Nevertheless, experts say
facilities at Yongbyon could be converted to produce weapons-grade uranium.
South Korean tests carried out on fragments of a rocket fired in December in
what the North describes as a satellite launch showed it would have had a range
of more than 10,000km (6,200 miles), putting the US well within striking
distance.
However, there is little evidence that North Korea has yet developed a
guidance system to ensure an accurate strike, or the re-entry technology to
bring an intercontinental ballistic missile (IBM) back down.
North Korea successfully
launched a rocket in December
Pyongyang's ability to carry out a nuclear strike on the US is even less
certain, as analysts do not believe it has yet managed to create a small enough
nuclear device to be mounted on a warhead.
December's missile launch,
the
International Institute for Strategic Studies said, proved that North Korea
has something that can hit American shores but it says that any "functioning
nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile is still at least several
years away".
North Korea has shown it is determined to pursue this technology. Its latest
underground nuclear test was double the size of the previous one in 2009.
The North claimed that
a nuclear
test in February detonated "an atomic warhead that is lighter and
miniaturised but with a big explosive charge".
But while the North might struggle to hit the US, it could target US
interests in the region. There are more than 28,000 US military personnel based
in South Korea, another 40,000 in Japan and a large military base in Guam, a US
territory off the Philippines.
The US is also obliged to defend Japan if it is attacked under the terms of
the
post-World
War II security alliance between Washington and Tokyo.
Even if a missile is launched from the North, Washington has insisted it is
"fully capable" of blocking any attack against it or its allies.
It is also worth noting that the only US Navy ship being held by a foreign
power is in Pyongyang.
The USS Pueblo was captured while on a surveillance mission in 1968. It was
in international waters during its mission and
nobody imagined that the North Koreans might
capture it - so the crew were unprepared.
One crew member died and 82 were taken to North Korean prison camps, where
they were held for 11 months, accused of spying. They were released once the US
apologised and insisted the ship had not been spying - later retracting both
statements.
"The Cheonan sank close to the disputed sea boundary between
North and South Korean territorial waters, along which the two navies have
clashed a number of times in the past decade”
Since the Korean War ended, Pyongyang has repeatedly
shown its ability to strike neighbours and foreign interests in the region,
often in response to what it sees a provocation.
In 1967, it attacked and sank South Korea's vessel the Dangpo as it patrolled
in the Yellow Sea, killing 39 of the crew.
There followed a period of relative calm - though sabre-rattling continued -
as South Korea pursued its "Sunshine Policy", an attempt to steadily build
closer relations and reduce tensions between 1998 and 2008.
But in March 2010, the South Korean warship Cheonan travelling close to the
disputed maritime border - known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL) - was
split in half by an explosion, leaving 46
sailors dead. South Korea said the only "plausible explanation" was that it
had been hit by a North Korean torpedo. Pyongyang denied this.
Teams have salvaged the
wreckage of the Cheonan from the sea bed
In November that year, North Korean troops launched an artillery strike on
South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, just south of the NLL. Two South Korean marines
and two civilians were killed. Pyongyang said the clash was provoked by a South
Korean military drill being conducted near the island.
North Korea has a conventional army of more than 1.1m, but its equipment is
thought to be Soviet-era and in poor condition.
However it still has a vast amount of artillery lined up along the
demilitarised zone, and the South Korean capital Seoul is within its reach.
According to the
International Institute for Strategic Studies' military balance,
approximately 65% of North Korea's military units, and up to 80% of its
estimated aggregate firepower are within 100km of the DMZ.
